UNDERSTANDING THE STOCK MARKET

Understanding the stock market

Stock Markets The term ‘Stock Market’ is commonly used to encompass both the physical location for buying and selling stocks as well as the overall activity of the market within a certain country.
When we hear an expression such as ‘The stock market was down today’ it refers to the combined activity of many stock exchanges. ‘Stock Exchange’ is the correct term for the physical location for trading stocks. Each country may have many different stock exchanges and usually a particular company’s stocks are traded on only one exchange, although large corporations may be listed in several different locations.
Stock exchanges exist throughout the world and it is possible to buy or sell stocks on any of them. The only restriction is the opening hours of each exchange. Stock markets closely follow the economic health of a country. When the economy is doing well the market is bullish. Bull markets occur during times of high economic production, low unemployment and low inflation. Bear markets, on the other hand, follow downtrends in the economy. Inflation and unemployment are rising and stock prices are falling.
Fluctuations in stock prices are also driven by supply and demand, which in turn are determined to a large extent on investor psychology. Seeing a stock rise in price may cause investors to jump on the bandwagon and this rush to buy drives the price even faster. A falling price can have the same effect. These are short term fluctuations. Stock prices tend to normalize after such runs.
The stock exchange is only one of many opportunities to invest. Other popular markets include the Foreign Exchange Market (FOREX), the Futures Market, and the Options Market.
The FOREX is the biggest (in terms of value of trades) investment market in the world. FOREX traders buy one currency against another and can profit from small changes in value. Most FOREX trades are entered and exited in one 24 hour span, and traders have to keep a close watch on the market in order to make profitable trades.
The Futures Market is a market of contracts to buy and sell goods at specified prices and times. It exists because buyers and sellers of goods wish to lock in prices for future delivery, but market conditions can make the actual futures contract fluctuate considerably in value. Most investors in the futures market are not interested in the actual goods – only in the profit that can be realized in trading the contracts.
The Options Market is similar to the Futures Market in that an option is a contract that gives you the right (but not the obligation) to trade a stock at a certain price before a specified date. They can be traded on their own or purchased as a form of insurance against price fluctuations within a certain time frame.
All three of these markets are quite risky and require considerable knowledge and experience to prevent substantial losses. They also require close attention to market movements. Stocks, on the other hand, are less risky because movements of the market are usually gradual. Although short term investment strategies are possible, most view stocks as long term investments.

Types of Trading

The stock market is a reliable indicator of the actual value of companies which issue stock. Values of stocks are based on verifiable financial data such as sales figures, assets and growth. This reliability makes the stock market a good choice for long term investing – well-run companies should continue to grow and provide dividends for their stockholders.
The stock market also provides opportunities for short-term investors. Market skittishness can cause prices to fluctuate quite rapidly and investor psychology can cause prices to fall or rise – even if there is no financial basis for these variations.
How does this happen? News reports, government announcements about the economy, and even rumours can cause investors to become nervous or to suspect that a company will increase in value. When the price starts to fall or rise, other investors will jump on the bandwagon, causing an even faster acceleration in price. Eventually the market will correct itself, but for savvy short-term investors who watch the market closely, these price changes can offer opportunities for profitable trading.
Short term traders are divided into 3 categories: Position Traders, Swing Traders, and Day

Traders.

Position Traders

Position trading is the longest term trading style of the three. Stocks could be held for a relatively long period of time compared with the other trading styles. Position traders expect to hold on to their stocks for anywhere from 5 days to 3 or 6 months. Position traders are watching for fundamental changes in value of a stock. This information can be gleaned from financial reports and industry analyses. Position trading does not require a great deal of time. An examination of daily reports is enough to plan trading strategies. This type of trading is ideal for those who inve
st in the stock market to supplement their income. The time needed to study the stock market can be as little as 30 minutes a day and can be done after regular work hours.

Swing Traders

Swing traders hold stocks for shorter periods than position traders – generally from one to five days. The swing trader is looking for changes in the market that are driven more by emotion than fundamental value. This type of trading requires more time than position trading but the payback is often greater. Swing traders usually spend about 2 hours a day researching stocks and executing orders. They need to be able to identify trends and pick out trading opportunities. They usually rely on daily and intraday charts to plot stock movements.
Day trading is commonly thought of as the most risky way to play the stock market. This may be true if the trader is uneducated, but those who know what they are doing know how to limit their risk and maximize their profit potential. Day trading refers to buying and selling stock in very short periods of time – less than a day but often as short as a few minutes. Day traders rely on information that can influence price moves and have to plot when to get in and out of a position. Day traders need to be rational and analytical. Emotional buyers will quickly lose money in this type of trading. Because of the close attention needed to market conditions, day trading is a full-time profession.

Stock Brokers

Brokers handle most of the buying and selling on the stock market, and the average investor will use a brokerage service to handle his trades. There is a broad range of brokerage services available. There are brokers who offer many services for aiding their clients meet their investment goals. These ‘full-service brokers’ can give advice about which stocks to buy and sell and often have full research facilities for analyzing market trends and predicting movements.
These perks are not free – full service brokers charge the highest commission rates in the industry. Whether or not you decide to use a full-service broker depends on your level of self-confidence, your knowledge of the stock market and the number of trades you regularly make.
Investors who wish to save on commission fees can use a ‘discount broker’. These brokers charge much lower commissions but don’t offer advice or analysis. Investors who like to make their own trading decisions and those who make many trades often use discount brokers for their transactions. Some traders may use both types – there is no reason why you can’t have two brokers.
The least expensive way to trade stocks is usually with an online brokerage. Both full-service and discount brokers usually offer discounts for orders placed online. Some brokers operate exclusively online and offer even better rates.
No matter what type of broker you choose, you must first open an account. Each broker sets their own requirements for maintaining an account balance but it is usually between $500 and $1000. When choosing a broker look at the fine print and find out about the fees involved. Some brokers charge an annual maintenance fee while other charge fees whenever your account balance falls below the minimum.
There are two basic types of brokerage accounts. A ‘cash account’ offers no credit – when you buy you pay the full amount of the stock price. A ‘margin’ account, on the other hand, allows you to buy stock ‘on margin’ – the brokerage will carry some of the cost of the stock. The amount of margin varies from broker to broker but the margin must be protected by the value of the client’s portfolio. If the portfolio falls below a specified amount the investor will have to add more funds or sell some stock. Margin accounts allow investors to buy more stock with less cash thereby realizing greater gains (and losses). Because they involve more risk than cash accounts, margin accounts are not recommended for inexperienced traders.
Before choosing a particular broker the investor should carefully consider his needs. Does he wish to receive advice about which stocks to buy? Is he uncomfortable making trades on the Internet? If so, he should go with a full-service broker. Technology savvy investors who have the knowledge and confidence to make their own trading decisions are better off with a discount broker.
After deciding which type, compare a few competitors. There can often be significant differences in costs when all the annual fees and brokerage rates are factored in. Try to gauge how many trades you expect to make in a year, how much cash you can deposit into your account, whether you wish to use margin accounts and which services you need. This information will allow you to compare the actual costs of various brokers.

Penny Stocks

Penny stocks are low-priced stocks All of these factors – low price, lack of standards, and lack of stability – make penny stocks one of the riskiest investments around. It is true that if a company succeeds the payoff will be great, but the vast majority of penny stocks end in bankruptcy. Other reasons why penny stocks are risky include...
- Lack of information about the company. Companies listed in the Pink Sheets or the OTCBB do not have to issue financial statements. Most companies also have little reportable history.
- Low liquidity. Penny stocks are infrequently traded, so finding a buyer may be difficult. The price may have to lowered substantially to interest someone in buying the stock.
- Potential fraud. Due to their unregulated nature, penny stocks are often used by con artists who sell them through spam email or off-shore brokers.
So penny stocks are risky but are there any benefits to them?
Not all penny stocks are frauds or companies facing bankruptcy. Some represent hard-working businesses that are struggling to meet the requirements to get listed on Nasdaq or the NYSE. Investing in these companies offers real growth potential – you have the opportunity to get in at the ground floor and ride all the way to the top.
The difficulty is finding which companies have this growth potential. Getting this information requires a lot of research and unless you are willing to take the time to personally investigate a company, you may again be the victim of fraud. Some companies specialize in offering ‘inside information’ about companies selling penny stock, but they may simply be fronts for pushing a particular stock on unsuspecting investors.
There are two ways to play the penny stocks – do research or play craps. The low cost of these stocks means that you will not lose a lot money if the company goes under, and as long as you are prepared to lose this money penny stocks can be an interesting and fun addition to any portfolio. It must be stressed, however, that penny stocks should only make up a small portion of any portfolio. The odds are that most penny stocks will end up in a total loss.
If you would like to buy penny stocks you need to find a broker that will place an order for you. Many brokers will not cover them because of the difficulties in tracking them, but some online brokers specialize in penny stocks. Regulations require brokers to receive written confirmation from the client concerning the transaction. The broker is also required to give the client a document outlining the risks of speculating with penny stocks.
Finally, the broker must disclose the current market price of the stock and the amount of compensation the firm receives for the trade. Monthly statements must be sent to the client detailing market value of each penny stock in the account.

Fundamental Analysis

Although the raw data of the Financial Statement has some useful information, much more can be understood about the value of a stock by applying a variety of tools to the financial data.
Earnings per Share
The overall earnings of a company is not in itself a useful indicator of a stock’s worth. Low earnings coupled with low outstanding shares can be more valuable than high earnings with a high number of outstanding shares. Earnings per share is much more useful information than earnings by itself. Earnings per share (EPS) is calculated by dividing the net earnings by the number of outstanding shares. For example: ABC company had net earnings of $1 million and 100,000 outstanding shares for an EPS of 10 (1,000,000 / 100,000 = 10). This information is useful for comparing two companies in a certain industry but should not be the deciding factor when choosing stocks.

Price to Earning Ratio

The Price to Earning Ratio (P/E) shows the relationship between stock price and company earnings. It is calculated by dividing the share price by the Earnings per Share. In our example above of ABC company the EPS is 10 so if it has a price per share of $50 the P/E is 5 (50 / 10 = 5). The P/E tells you how much investors are willing to pay for that particular company’s earnings. P/E’s can be read in a variety of ways. A high P/E could mean that the company is overpriced or it could mean that investors expect the company to continue to grow and generate profits. A low P/E could mean that investors are wary of the company or it could indicate a company that most investors have overlooked.

Either way, further analysis is needed to determine the true value of a particular stock.

Price to Sales Ratio

When a company has no earnings, there are other tools available to help investors judge its worth. New companies in particular often have no earnings, but that does not mean they are bad investments. The Price to Sales ratio (P/S) is a useful tool for judging new companies. It is calculated by dividing the market cap (stock price times number of outstanding shares) by total revenues. An alternate method is to divide current share price by sales per share. P/S indicates the value the market places on sales. The lower the P/S the better the value.

Price to Book Ratio

Book value is determined by subtracting liabilities from assets. The value of a growing company will always be more than book value because of the potential for future revenue. The price to book ratio (P/B) is the value the market places on the book value of the company. It is calculated by dividing the current price per share by the book value per share (book value / number of outstanding shares). Companies with a low P/B are good value and are often sought after by long term investors who see the potential of such companies.

Dividend Yield

Some investors are looking for stocks that can maximize dividend income. Dividend yield is useful for determining the percentage return a company pays in the form of dividends. It is calculated by dividing the annual dividend per share by the stock’s price per share. Usually it is the older, well-established companies that pay a higher percentage, and these companies also usually have a more consistent dividend history than younger companies.
The investor has many tools at hand when making decisions about which stocks to buy. One of the most useful of these is fundamental analysis – examining key ratios which show the worth of a stock and how a company is performing.
The goal of fundamental analysis is to determine how much money a company is making and what kind of earnings can be expected in the future. Although future earnings are always subject to interpretation, a good earning history creates confidence among investors. Stock prices increase and dividends may also be paid out.
Companies are required to report earnings on a regular basis and stock market analysts examine these figures to determine if a company is meeting its expected growth. If not, there is usually a downturn in the stock’s price.
There are many tools available to help determine a company’s earnings and its value on the stock market. Most of them rely on the financial statements provided by the company. Further fundamental analysis can be done to reveal details about the value of a company including its competitive advantages and the ratio of ownership between management and outside investors.
Financial Statements

Every publicly traded company must publish regular financial statements. These statements are available in printed form or on the Internet. All statements must include an income statement, a balance sheet, an auditor’s report, a statement of cash flow, a description of the business activities and the expected revenue for the coming year.

Auditor’s Report

The auditor’s report is one of the most important sections of the financial statement. The auditor is an independent Certified Public Accountant firm which examines the company’s financial activities to determine if the financial statement is an accurate description of the earnings. The auditor’s report contains the opinion of the auditor concerning the accuracy of the financial statement. A financial statement without an independent auditor’s report is essentially worthless because it could contain misleading or inaccurate information. An auditor’s report, although not a guarantee of accuracy, at least provides credibility to the financial statement.

Balance Sheet

Another important section of the financial statement is the balance sheet. This is a ‘snapshot’ as it were, of the financial condition of the company at a single point in time. The balance sheet shows the relationship between assets (cash, property and equipment), liabilities (debt) and equity (retained earnings and stock).

Income Statement

The income statement shows information about the revenue, net income, and earnings per share over a period of time. The top line of the income statement shows the amount of income generated by sales, underneath which the costs incurred in doing business are deducted. The bottom line show the net income (or loss) and the income per share.

Cash Flow

The statement of cash flow is similar to the income statement – it provides a picture of a company’s performance over time. The cash flow statement, however, does not use accounting procedures such as depreciation – it is simply an indicator of how a company handles income and expenses. A statement of cash flow shows incoming and outgoing cash from sales, investments, and financing. It is a good indicator about how the company is run on a day-to-day basis, how it handles creditors and from where it receives growth capital.

Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is the art and science of examining stock chart data and predicting future moves on the stock market. Investors who use this style of analysis are often unconcerned about the nature or value of the companies they trade stocks in. Their holdings are usually short-term – once their projected profit is reached they drop the stock.
The basis for technical analysis is the belief that stock prices move in predictable patterns. All the factors that influence price movement – company performance, the general state of the economy, natural disasters – are supposedly reflected in the stock market with great efficiency. This efficiency, coupled with historical trends produces movements that can be analyzed and applied to future stock market movements.
Technical analysis is not intended for long-term investments because fundamental information concerning a company’s potential for growth is not taken into account. Trades must be entered and exited at precise times, so technical analysts need to spend a great deal of time watching market movements.
Investors can take advantage of both upswings and downswings in price by going either long or short. Stop-loss orders limit losses in the event that the market does not move as expected.
There are many tools available to the technical analyst. Literally hundreds of stock patterns have been developed over time. Most of them, however, rely on the basic concepts of ‘support’ and ‘resistance’. Support is the level that downward prices are expected to rise from, and Resistance is the level that upward prices are expected to reach before falling again. In other words, prices tend to bounce once they have hit support or resistance levels.

Charts

Technical analysis relies heavily on charts for tracking market movements. Bar charts are the most commonly used. They consist of vertical bars representing a particular time period – weekly, daily, hourly, or even by the minute. The top of each bar shows the highest price for the period, the bottom is the lowest price, and the small bar to the right is the opening price and the small bar to the left is the closing price. A great deal of information can be seen in glancing at bar charts. Long bars indicate a large price spread and the position of the side bars shows whether the price rose or dropped and also the spread between opening and closing prices.
A variation on the bar chart is the candlestick chart. These charts use solid bodies to indicate the variation between opening and closing prices and the lines (shadows) that extend above and below the body indicate the highest and lowest prices respectively. Candlestick bodies are coloured black or red if the closing price was lower than the previous period or white or green if the price closed higher. Candlesticks form various shapes that can indicate market movement. A green body with short shadows is bullish – the stock opened near its low and closed near its high. Conversely, a red body with short shadows is bearish – the stock opened near the high and closed near the low. These are only two of the more than 20 patterns that can be formed by candlesticks.

Technical Analysis – Indicators and Patterns

When glancing at charts the untrained eye may simply see random movements from one day to the next. Trained analysts, however, see patterns that are used to predict future movements of stock prices. There are hundreds of different indicators and patterns that can be applied. There is no one single reliable indicator, but when taken into consideration with others, investors can be quite successful in predicting price movements.

Patterns

One of the most popular patterns is Cup and Handle. Prices start out relatively high then dip and come back up (the cup). They finally level out for a period (handle) before making a breakout – a sudden rise in price. Investors who buy on the handle can make good profits.
Another popular pattern is Head and Shoulders. This is formed by a peak (first shoulder) followed by a dip and then a higher peak (the head) followed again by a dip and a rise (the second shoulder). This is taken to be a bearish pattern with prices to fall substantially after the second shoulder.

Indicators

Moving Average

The most popular indicator is the moving average. This shows the average price over a period of time. For a 30 day moving average you add the closing prices for each of the 30 days and divide by 30. The most common averages are 20, 30, 50, 100, and 200 days. Longer time spans are less affected by daily price fluctuations. A moving average is plotted as a line on a graph of price changes. When prices fall below the moving average they have a tendency to keep on falling. Conversely, when prices rise above the moving average they tend to keep on rising.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

This indicator compares the number of days a stock finishes up with the number of days it finishes down. It is calculated for a certain time span – usually between 9 and 15 days. The average number of up days is divided by the average number of down days. This number is added to one and the result is used to divide 100. This number is subtracted from 100. The RSI has a range between 0 and 100. A RSI of 70 or above can indicate a stock which is overbought and due for a fall in price. When the RSI falls below 30 the stock may be oversold and is a good time to buy. These numbers are not absolute – they can vary depending on whether the market is bullish or bearish. RSI charted over longer periods tend to show less extremes of movement. Looking at historical charts over a period of a year or so can give a good indicator of how a stock price moves in relation to its RSI.

Money Flow Index (MFI)

The RSI is calculated by following stock prices, but the Money Flow Index (MFI) takes into account the number of shares traded as well as the price. The range is from 0 to 100 and just like the RSI, an MFI of 70 is an indicator to sell and an MFI of 30 is an indicator to buy. Also like the RSI, when charted over longer periods of time the MFI can be more accurate as an indicator.

Bollinger Bands

This indicator is plotted as a grouping of 3 lines. The upper and lower lines are plotted according to market volatility. When the market is volatile the space between these lines widens and during times of less volatility the lines come closer together. The middle line is the simple moving average between the two outer lines (bands). As prices move closer to the lower band the stronger the indication is that the stock is oversold – the price should soon rise. As prices rise to the higher band the stock becomes more overbought meaning prices should fall. Bollinger bands are often used by investors to confirm other indicators. The wise technical analyst will always use a number of indicators before making a decision to trade a particular stock.

Bull Markets and Bear Markets

The stock market moves up and down every day, but when movements continue downwards for a period of time the market is referred to as a ‘bear market’. Upward moving markets are ‘bull markets’. If a particular stock is doing well, it is said to be bullish. If it is losing value it is bearish.
Bull and Bear are the terms to describe the general conditions of the stock market. These do not refer to short term fluctuations – a bear market is commonly understood as one where prices of key stocks have fallen in price by 20% or more over a period of at least 2 months. Even during a bear market, however, prices may increase temporarily. Bull markets are the opposite of bear markets – they are indicated by a rise in prices of key stocks over a certain period of time.
Usually stock market conditions reflect the state of the economy. During bull markets the economy is doing well, unemployment is low and interest rates are reasonable. Bear markets usually occur during times of economic slowdown. Investors lose confidence and companies may begin laying off workers. At the extremes, an exaggerated bear market can lead to a crash brought on by panic selling. An exaggerated bull market can be caused by over-enthusiasm of investors. It leads to a market ‘bubble’ that will eventually burst.
Although most money can be made during bull markets, there are also opportunities during bear markets. Knowing the characteristics of each type of market allows investors to profit from them. As would be expected, when the market is bullish investors wish to buy up stock. The economy is doing well and people have extra money which they wish to invest in stocks. This creates a situation of short supply which drives up prices even higher. During bear markets, on the other hand, prices are falling so investors wish to unload their stocks and put their money in fixed-return instruments such as bonds. As money is withdrawn from the stock market, supply exceeds demand which drives prices down even further.
It is easiest to make money during a bull market. Getting in right at the beginning will allow you to make the most profits. During a bull market any dips in the market are temporary and should soon be corrected. The upward rising prices can’t go on forever, though, so the investor needs to be able to gauge when the market reaches its peak and sell at that time.
Bear markets represent opportunities to pick up stocks at bargain prices. Getting in near the end of a bear market offers the greatest chance for profit. The prices will most likely fall before they recover, so the investor should be prepared for some short term loss. Short-selling is also an investment strategy during bear markets. Short selling involves selling stock that you do not own in the anticipation of further price drops, so that when it comes time to deliver you can buy the stock for less than you sold it.
Fixed return investments such as CAs and bonds can be used to generate income during a bear market. So called ‘defensive stocks’ are also safe to buy at any time. These include government owned utilities that provide necessities no matter what state the economy is in.

Trading Strategies

There are two basic ways to trade the stock market – shooting in the barrel or using strategies to determine which stocks to buy, when to sell, and how to protect your investment dollars. Needless to say, strategies outperform barrel shooting by a large margin. There are, however, hundreds of trading strategies to choose from. Of all of these there are a couple of tried and trued methods that have worked well for investors over many years. The beginning investor is advised to investigate some of these basic strategies and see for himself how they perform. New strategies can be explored once the basic ones are well-understood.

Hedging

Hedging is a way of protecting an investment by reducing the risks involved in holding a particular stock. The risk that the price of the stock will drop can be offset by buying a put option that allows you to sell at the stock at a particular price within a certain time frame. If the price of the stock falls, the value of the put option will increase.
Buying put options against individual stocks is the most expensive hedging strategy. If you have a broad portfolio a better option may be to buy a put option on the stock market itself. This protects you against general market declines. Another way to hedge against market declines is to sell financial futures like the S&P 500 futures.

Dogs of the Dow

This is a strategy that became popular during the 1990s. The idea is to buy the best-value stocks in the Dow Industrial Average by choosing the 10 stocks that have the lowest P/E ratios and the highest dividend yields. The companies on the Dow Index are mature companies that offer reliable investment performance. The idea is that the lowest 10 on the Dow have the most potential for growth over the coming year. A new twist on the Dogs of the Dow is the Pigs of the Dow. This strategy selects the worst 5 Dow stocks by looking at the percentage of price decline in the previous year. As with the Dogs, the idea is that the Pigs stand to rebound more than the others.

Buying on Margin

Buying on margin means to buy stocks with borrowed money – usually from your broker. Margin gives you more return than if you were to pay the full cost outright because you receive more stock for a lower initial investment. Margin buying can also be risky because if the stock loses value your losses will be correspondingly greater. When buying on margin the investor should have stop-loss orders in place to limit losses in the case of market reversal. The amount of margin should be limited to about 10% of the value of your total account.

Dollar Cost and Value Averaging

Dollar cost averaging involves investing a fixed dollar amount on a regular basis. An example would be buying shares of a mutual fund on a monthly basis. If the fund drops in price the investor will receive more shares for his money. Conversely, when the price is higher, the fixed amount will buy fewer shares. An alternative to this is value averaging. The investor decides on a regular value he wishes to invest. For example, he may wish to invest $100 a month in a mutual fund. When the price of the fund is high he puts a higher dollar amount in the fund and when the price is low he spends less money. This averages out his investment to the original $100 per month. Value averaging almost always outperforms dollar cost averaging as a percentage return on the money invested. When used as part of a broader trading strategy it can help secure the growth of your investment fund.